Prediction markets are markets where the price of a share equals the chance of a real-world event happening. This section is the SA player’s guide to Polymarket, the largest event-trading platform open to international users today. We cover what it is, what it costs, the SA legal picture, and how to place a first trade.

New here? Start with the how prediction markets work guide. Want the full Polymarket breakdown? Jump to the Polymarket review. SA-specific question? Try the legal status page.

Field	Value
Section type	Prediction markets and event trading
Operators reviewed	1 (Polymarket)
SA access	Yes, via international wallet flow
Settlement currency	USDC on Polygon
Typical trade fee	1 per cent per fill (verify on day)
Regulator	None for prediction markets in SA today
Recommended starting stake	100 ZAR equivalent in USDC
Affiliate route	ICYOM

What this section covers

Seven pages map the whole section. Hub up top, six spokes underneath. Use the cards below to jump in. Every page links back to the others, so you can move sideways without losing your place.

• Polymarket review, fees, KYC, deposits, withdrawals, SA access, score out of 5.
• What is Polymarket, the platform in plain English with a worked trade.
• How prediction markets work, the maths, the mechanics, and how Polymarket runs the matches.
• Polymarket vs sports betting, side by side with SA sportsbooks.
• Is Polymarket legal in South Africa, the NGB, WCGRB, FSCA and SARS picture.
• Glossary, every term defined in plain English.

A prediction market in two paragraphs

A prediction market is a place where the price of a share is the chance of a future event. Shares trade between 1 cent and 99 cents. If the event resolves YES, every YES share pays out 100 cents. If it resolves NO, every YES share pays out zero. The NO share is the mirror of that.

Polymarket is the platform. It runs on Polygon, a Layer 2 chain on top of Ethereum. Trades settle in USDC. The platform takes a 1 per cent trade fee. SA users access it through a wallet and USDC, not through SA banking. For the full mechanics, see how prediction markets work.

Why SA traders use Polymarket

Three reasons come up most often in SA-specific forums and reviews.

• Lower hold than a SA sportsbook. Polymarket takes 1 per cent of every trade. A SA sportsbook bakes 5 to 10 per cent margin into its odds. Over many trades the gap shows.
• Broader event coverage. Politics, sports, crypto, weather and pop culture. A SA bookie sells you sports plus a few specials. Polymarket has a live market for almost any major event with a clear outcome.
• USDC payouts on Polygon. Withdrawals are minutes to a wallet, not 1 to 5 banking days. The off-ramp back to ZAR is a separate step through Luno or VALR.

The trade-offs are real. No NGB licence. No ZAR banking. The wallet and USDC step is a learning curve. The full vs page covers both sides.

Top market types to start with

Polymarket groups its live markets into five buckets. The big books in politics and crypto have the deepest order books, which means tighter spreads and better fills.

Market type	Example market	Why SA traders look at it
Politics	SA 2027 general election outcomes	Deepest books, sharpest pricing
Sports	Springboks Rugby World Cup 2027 winner	Long-form markets the bookie closes early
Crypto	Bitcoin closing price on 31/12/2026	Hedge or speculate on the cycle
Pop culture	Oscars Best Picture 2027	Different angle from a sportsbook
Weather and macro	El Nino active in summer 2026/27	Niche, wider spreads

Verify the live markets on the day. Markets open and close all the time. Use the glossary if any term is new.

What it costs and what it pays

Three fees affect every trade. The trade fee, network gas on Polygon, and the off-ramp on the way back to ZAR.

• Trade fee. 1 per cent of the order size. Verify on the day of trade.
• Gas fee. Polygon, fractions of a US cent per action.
• Off-ramp fee. Charged by Luno or VALR when you swap USDC back to ZAR.

Worked example. Buy 10 YES shares at 38 cents each. Total cost: 3.80 USDC plus a 1 per cent fee = 3.84 USDC. If the YES resolves, you receive 10.00 USDC. Net profit, 6.16 USDC. If the NO resolves, you lose 3.84 USDC.

The legal picture in South Africa

Short version. Polymarket is not licensed by the NGB or the WCGRB. There is no SA law that explicitly bans access today. SA users access Polymarket as an international platform at their own risk. Tax on any gains may fall under SARS capital gains or income, depending on intent.

The full picture, with the NCA, FAIS and FSCA angles, sits on the legal status page. None of this is legal or tax advice. Speak to a registered SA accountant or attorney for your situation.

How to get started in five steps

1. Read the guide. 10 minutes on how prediction markets work saves you 100 USDC in beginner mistakes.
2. Pick up some USDC. Luno or VALR will sell you USDC for ZAR. Send it to your wallet on the Polygon network.
3. Open a Polymarket account. Email login or MetaMask, 2 minutes.
4. Start small. A 100 ZAR equivalent in USDC is enough to learn the flow without losing real money on a beginner mistake.
5. Read the full review before scaling up. The Polymarket review covers fees, KYC, withdrawals and risks in detail.

Page FAQ

What is a prediction market?

A market where you trade shares in the outcome of a real-world event. The price moves between 1 cent and 99 cents and acts like a probability. For the full breakdown, see how prediction markets work.

Can I use Polymarket from South Africa?

Yes, as of 16/05/2026. Polymarket is an international platform. SA users access it through a wallet and USDC on the Polygon network, not through SA banking.

Do I pay tax on Polymarket gains in SA?

SARS may treat gains as either capital gains or income, depending on your trading pattern and intent. Keep transaction records. See the legal status page for more detail and speak to a registered accountant for your specific situation.

What is the smallest trade I can place?

1 USDC at time of writing. That is roughly 18 to 20 ZAR depending on the exchange rate.

What is the difference between a prediction market and a sportsbook?

A sportsbook sets odds and takes the other side. A prediction market matches traders against each other, with the price updating in real time. Full breakdown on the vs page.

What is ICYOM?

ICYOM is the affiliate platform we route sign-ups through. It does not change the price or fees a trader pays on Polymarket.

Is this gambling or trading?

Polymarket positions itself as event trading. The risk profile still includes total loss on any single trade. Treat it as risk capital.

Keep reading

Cross-section reads for context on the SA market.

• SA casinos hub, every casino review on the site.
• SA sportsbooks hub, the licensed bookies Polymarket competes with.
• Hollywoodbets review, the SA sportsbook benchmark used throughout this section.
• Games guides hub, casino game mechanics and RTP explainers.

Risk and disclosure. Polymarket is an international prediction market. It is not licensed by the National Gambling Board or the WCGRB. SA users access it at their own risk. Trades can lose value or settle at zero. Prediction market shares are not bank deposits and are not protected by SARB. iGaming Reviews is independent and may earn a commission when readers sign up through our links. This does not change our review or rating. 18+. Trade responsibly. South African National Responsible Gambling Programme helpline: 0800 006 008.