Prediction market glossary, 28 terms explained
Every Polymarket and prediction market term defined in plain English. Bookmark this for your next trade.
Read the Polymarket reviewThe 28 terms below cover every word you will see on Polymarket and across the wider prediction market space. Each definition is two to three sentences. Click a term in another guide and you will land at the right entry. Start with the basics, then jump to the technical terms once you have placed a few trades.
For the full mechanics, read how prediction markets work. For Polymarket specifically, read the full review.
Prediction market
An exchange where the price of a share equals the chance of an event happening. Shares trade between 1 cent and 99 cents and pay 100 cents on a YES outcome, zero on a NO outcome. Polymarket is the largest example today.
Share
A single claim on a future outcome. Costs between 1 cent and 99 cents. Pays 100 cents if the outcome resolves YES, zero if it resolves NO.
Market
One specific question on the platform, with its own YES and NO prices and resolution criteria. Examples: “Will Bitcoin close above 100,000 USD on 31/12/2026?” or “Who will win the 2027 Springbok captaincy?”
Binary market
A market with two outcomes only: YES or NO. The YES share price plus the NO share price equals 100 cents at all times. Most Polymarket markets are binary.
Conditional market
A market that resolves YES only if a specific condition is met first. Example: “If the SA election happens on schedule, will the ANC win a majority?” Useful for hedging compound bets.
Categorical market
A market with more than two outcomes, like “Who will win the Best Picture Oscar?” Each candidate has its own share, and the prices of all outcomes add up to 100 cents.
YES share
A share that pays 100 cents if the market resolves in favour of the headline question. Buy YES if you think the answer is yes.
NO share
A share that pays 100 cents if the market resolves against the headline question. Buy NO if you think the answer is no.
Order book
The list of every active buy and sell order at every price. The best bid (highest buy) and best ask (lowest sell) set the live market price. Deep markets have a thick book with small spreads.
Automated market maker (AMM)
A smart contract that holds a pool of liquidity and always quotes a price, even when no human trader is on the other side. Backstops the order book on Polymarket. Wider spread than a deep book.
Liquidity
How much volume can trade without moving the price. High liquidity means tight spreads and easy entry. Thin liquidity means a small order can shift the price 5 to 10 cents.
Slippage
The difference between the price you saw and the price you actually got. Larger on thin markets and on market orders. Use limit orders to control slippage.
Limit order
An order to buy or sell at a specific price or better. Will not fill if the market moves the wrong way. The standard order type for any trader who wants control over their entry.
Market order
An order to buy or sell at whatever the next available price is. Always fills, but you accept whatever the price has moved to. Use sparingly on Polymarket.
Spread
The difference between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread is 1 to 2 cents (deep markets), a wide spread is 5 to 10 cents (thin markets). Wider spread means a higher cost to enter and exit.
Resolution
The moment the market settles. YES shares pay 100 cents, NO shares pay zero, or vice versa. Resolution is set by the oracle, normally UMA, within hours or days of the event.
Oracle
An off-chain service that posts the real-world outcome on-chain so the smart contract can settle the market. Polymarket uses UMA as its primary oracle. The oracle has a dispute window for ambiguous outcomes.
UMA
The Universal Market Access protocol, the oracle Polymarket uses by default. Posts the outcome of a market and gives a 2 to 7 day window for disputes. Disputes are settled by a vote of UMA token holders.
Dispute
A challenge to the oracle’s posted outcome. Usually arises when the market wording is ambiguous. Disputers post evidence, and the final outcome is decided by an UMA token holder vote. Funds are locked during the window.
USDC
A USD-backed stablecoin issued by Circle. Polymarket settles all trades in USDC. 1 USDC is intended to equal 1 US dollar at all times. Bought on Luno or VALR for SA users.
Polygon
A Layer 2 blockchain on top of Ethereum, designed for cheap and fast trades. Polymarket runs on Polygon to keep gas fees low. Polygon transactions cost fractions of a US cent.
Gas
The fee paid to the network for processing a transaction. On Polygon, gas is fractions of a US cent. On Ethereum mainnet it can be 5 to 50 US dollars per transaction. The reason Polymarket lives on Polygon.
Wallet
A piece of software that holds your private keys and signs transactions. Polymarket can be used with a hosted wallet (linked to your email) or a self-custody wallet like MetaMask. The wallet is what holds your USDC.
MetaMask
The most common self-custody wallet for Polygon and Ethereum. Available as a browser extension or a mobile app. Stores your private keys on your own device.
Bridge
A service that moves an asset from one blockchain to another. SA users may need to bridge USDC from Ethereum to Polygon if their exchange does not support direct Polygon withdrawals. Adds 5 to 15 minutes and a small fee.
Off-ramp
The route that converts crypto back to local currency. For SA users, Luno and VALR are the two main off-ramps from USDC to ZAR. Adds 1 to 2 banking days on the final step to your local bank account.
KYC
Know Your Customer. The identity verification process required by financial regulators. Polymarket runs light KYC, triggered above volume thresholds for higher tier accounts. SA exchanges like Luno and VALR do strict KYC at sign-up.
Trade fee
The fee Polymarket charges on every fill, set at 1 per cent at time of writing. Taken from the cost of the trade, not the payout. Verify the current rate on the platform on the day of trade.
Keep reading
- Prediction markets hub, the section homepage.
- Polymarket review, the full breakdown of fees, KYC and withdrawals.
- How prediction markets work, the mechanics in plain English.
- What is Polymarket, the explainer.